The Week 10 NFL slate is stacked with great matchups. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score predictions.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy‘s Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk‘s Mackenzie Kraemer hand out helpful nuggets as well. It’s all here to help get you ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 10 schedule, including a battle atop the NFC West on Monday night.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 72.0 | Spread: KC -6 (48)
What to watch for: The Chiefs’ run defense is subpar (139 yards against per game), which is perfect for the run-oriented offensive identity the Titans say they want to have. Derrick Henry got only 13 carries last weekend in a loss to Carolina, another team that has struggled to stop the run this season. It will be imperative for Tennessee to get Henry touches to keep the ball away from the Kansas City offense as much as possible. — Turron Davenport
Bold prediction: The Chiefs will hold the Titans to fewer than 100 rushing yards and less than 4.0 yards per carry for the third time in four games. Kansas City is improving defensively to the point that Tennessee’s Henry won’t be much of a factor. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Since making a quarterback switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill, the Titans’ offense has averaged 5.7 yards per play compared to 4.8 yards per play before the change under center.
What to know for fantasy: When a running back gets at least 14 carries against the Chiefs this season, he averages 109.4 rushing yards. Henry is averaging 18.2 carries per game this season. See Week 10 rankings.
Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 30, Titans 20
Davenport’s pick: Chiefs 28, Titans 20
FPI prediction: KC, 59.1% (by an average of 3.1 points)
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 60.7 | Spread: NO -14 (51)
What to watch for: The Saints are rolling with six consecutive wins, while Atlanta is off the rails with six consecutive losses. It’s hard to imagine the Falcons throwing Drew Brees off his game, since they rank last in the NFL with seven sacks, four takeaways and an opponents’ Total QBR of 66.6. — Mike Triplett
Bold prediction: Deion Jones, a New Orleans native, will pick off Brees for the fourth time in five games and for the third time in his hometown. — Vaughn McClure
Stat to know: Brees is 2-0 with an 86.3 QBR in his past two games against the Falcons, throwing seven touchdowns and just one interception. The Saints averaged 37 points in those games.
What to know for fantasy: The Saints are allowing the sixth-most yards per tight end target this season, and Austin Hooper ranks second among qualified TEs in yards per target this season. See Week 10 rankings.
Betting nugget: New Orleans has covered in six straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 7-17 ATS over the past two seasons, the worst mark in the NFL (2-6 ATS this season, tied for worst in the NFL). Read more.
McClure’s pick: Saints 35, Falcons 21
Triplett’s pick: Saints 33, Falcons 23
FPI prediction: NO, 77.0% (by an average of 9.9 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 48.1 | Spread: CHI -2.5 (41.5)
What to watch for: How will each of the offenses execute? The Bears average 266.8 yards per game (29th in the NFL) and 4.5 per play (30th), but Chicago’s defense gives up an average of only 18 points (sixth). Detroit is the exact opposite. The Lions’ offense is fifth in yards per game and seventh in yards per play, but they have the league’s 31st-ranked defense. Something has to give on Sunday. — Jeff Dickerson
Bold prediction: Matthew Stafford puts up his fourth consecutive 300-yard game with three touchdowns, continuing a low-key MVP-level season most won’t pay attention to because Detroit’s defense continues to struggle. — Michael Rothstein
Stat to know: Chicago running back David Montgomery has 223 scrimmage yards and three scrimmage touchdowns on 48 touches over the past two games. He began the season with just 316 scrimmage yards and two scrimmage touchdowns on 82 touches in his first six games.
What to know for fantasy: Stafford ranks third in fantasy points per pass attempt this season (behind only Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson), but his point total has declined in three consecutive games against the Bears. See Week 10 rankings.
Betting nugget: Detroit has failed to cover three straight games, and Chicago has failed to cover four straight. In the past 20 years, the team with the better season ATS record is 23-4 ATS in matchups in which both teams enter the game with at least three-game losing streaks ATS. So far this season, Detroit is 4-4 ATS and Chicago is 2-6. Read more.
Victor Cruz and Rob Ninkovich both expect the Lions to have no problem with the struggling Bears.
Rothstein’s pick: Lions 28, Bears 17
Dickerson’s pick: Lions 20, Bears 19
FPI prediction: CHI, 60.1% (by an average of 3.5 points)
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 38.7 | Spread: TB -4.5 (52)
What to watch for: The Bucs’ defense surrendered 399 total yards last weekend to Russell Wilson, including 378 passing. This weekend, it faces Kyler Murray, whom Bucs coach Bruce Arians called “a real fast Russell Wilson.” But the Cardinals haven’t fared much better on defense, either, and they’ll face the league’s only pair of 700-plus-yard receivers in Mike Evans (842 yards) and Chris Godwin (766 yards). — Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: Kenyan Drake and David Johnson will each run for at least 75 yards and a touchdown as the Cardinals figure out that they have one of the best two-headed running back situations in the NFL. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: Per Elias Sports Bureau research, Murray has thrown 172 consecutive passes without an interception, the third-longest streak by a rookie in NFL history (176 by Derek Carr in 2014 and 176 by Dak Prescott in 2016).
What to know for fantasy: This one features two of the four worst defenses in terms of limiting fantasy QB production and two quarterbacks who have not one but two games of 25-plus points this season. See Week 10 rankings.
Weinfuss’ pick: Buccaneers 42, Cardinals 31
Laine’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Cardinals 21
FPI prediction: TB, 71.8% (by an average of 7.8 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 32.2 | Spread: BAL -10.5 (44.5)
What to watch for: Bengals rookie quarterback Ryan Finley will make his NFL debut. But all eyes will be on the Baltimore offense. The division-leading Ravens have the best rushing attack in the league, and Cincinnati has the worst rushing defense. — Ben Baby
Bold prediction: The Ravens will run for 360 yards, the highest total for any team this decade. How’s that for bold? Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing and gained 269 yards on the ground against Cincinnati earlier this season. The Bengals have allowed 1,421 yards rushing, over 200 more than any other team in the league. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Speaking of the Ravens’ run game, their 1,639 rushing yards are the most by any team through eight games since the 2006 Falcons (1,641). The most through nine games since the 1970 merger is 1,958 by the 1975 Bills.
What to know for fantasy: Ravens receiver Marquise Brown ranks 16th in yards per catch this season (minimum 20 receptions), and the Bengals are allowing a league-high 16.9 yards per deep pass attempt. See Week 10 rankings.
Betting nugget: Baltimore is 33-0 all time as a double-digit favorite, the only active franchise to never lose such a game. However, over the past 10 seasons, Baltimore is just 3-10 ATS in those games (0-2 this season). Read more.
Hensley’s pick: Ravens 26, Bengals 10
Baby’s pick: Ravens 24, Bengals 14
FPI prediction: BAL, 76.4% (by an average of 9.7 points)
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 27.8 | Spread: CLE -2.5 (40.5)
What to watch for: The Bills own the NFL’s top red zone offense, while the Browns have one of the worst. Star wideout Odell Beckham Jr. has only three red zone targets the entire season. After going 1-of-5 in the red zone last weekend, will Cleveland finally be able to get OBJ involved near the end zone? — Jake Trotter
Bold prediction: Bills wide receiver John Brown will finish with a game high in receiving yards. Brown is quietly on pace for a career-high 1,200 receiving yards and is Josh Allen‘s unquestioned top target. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Buffalo running back Devin Singletary had a career-high 140 scrimmage yards vs. the Redskins in Week 9, the most by a Bills player in the past two seasons and the most by a Bills rookie running back since Marshawn Lynch in 2007. He is seeking to become first Bill with 140-plus yards from scrimmage in consecutive games since LeSean McCoy had two separate two-game streaks in 2016.
What to know for fantasy: Cleveland’s Nick Chubb has been responsible for 82.4% of Cleveland’s rush attempts this season, putting him on pace for the highest rate since Rudi Johnson in 2004 (82.6%). See Week 10 rankings.
Betting nugget: This is the seventh time in the past 25 seasons that a team with a .250 or lower winning percentage is favored over a team with a .750 or better winning percentage in Week 6 or later. The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the previous six games. And it’s just the third time in the Super Bowl era it’s happened in Week 10 or later (2-0 ATS previously). Read more.
Louis-Jacques’ pick: Bills 17, Browns 14
Trotter’s pick: Bills 21, Browns 20
FPI prediction: CLE, 59.3% (by an average of 3.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bills Mafia: A day with the NFL’s wildest, most devoted tailgaters … Mayfield shaved because ‘didn’t deserve’ handlebar … To Gore, yards matter less than the legends he has passed … Singletary, Bills’ ‘bowling ball’ of a back, shines with more work
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 3.4 | Spread: NYG -2.5 (44.5)
What to watch for: It’s a battle of 22-year-old quarterbacks in Sam Darnold vs. Daniel Jones — only the 13th matchup in the Super Bowl era between quarterbacks 22 or younger. They’ve combined for 17 interceptions, so this could get sloppy. The Giants, heavily criticized for passing on Darnold in the 2018 draft, can claim validation if the rookie Jones outplays Darnold and leads them to victory. — Rich Cimini
Bold prediction: New Giants defensive tackle Leonard Williams gets two sacks against his former team. That’s significant because he has two sacks in his past 20 games. Then again, he has never been able to face this bad Jets offensive line in anything other than a practice. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: Entering his 23rd NFL game, Giants running back Saquon Barkley stands 51 receiving yards shy of 1,000 for his career. Per Elias Sports Bureau research, the fewest games needed to reach 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in NFL history are Alvin Kamara (20), Herschel Walker (22) and Charley Taylor (23).
What to know for fantasy: Jets wide receiver Jamison Crowder owns a 26.9% target share from Darnold this season, and the Giants are allowing the third-most wide receiver PPG (41.6). See Week 10 rankings.
Betting nugget: In the past five seasons, there have been 15 matchups in Week 6 or later between two teams with winning percentages of .250 or lower. In all 15 games, the underdog covered, going 14-1 straight up. Read more.
Victor Cruz and Rob Ninkovich expect the Giants to have no problems with the Jets this weekend.
Raanan’s pick: Giants 26, Jets 25
Cimini’s pick: Giants 24, Jets 17
FPI prediction: NYJ, 56.2% (by an average of 2.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jets’ season bears eerie resemblance to 1-15 disaster … Giants TE Engram out Sunday with foot sprain … Jets place CB Johnson on IR with ankle injuries … Ghosts to ghastly: QB Darnold’s three-game slump cause for concern
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 40.6 | Spread: IND -12.5 (44)
What to watch for: It’ll be all about the Colts’ offensive line vs. the Dolphins’ defense. The Indianapolis O-line should be able to regain any confidence lost of late because Miami has only 12 sacks, 30th in the NFL. The Colts gave up an NFL-low 18 sacks in 2018 but have given up nine in the past two games (Denver and Pittsburgh). — Mike Wells
Bold prediction: Indianapolis’ Marlon Mack rushes for 150 yards. The Dolphins are allowing 150.8 rushing yards per game, and although they’ve improved a bit defensively, they are still susceptible to getting thrashed in run game. — Cameron Wolfe
Stat to know: The Dolphins snapped a 10-game losing streak last weekend against the Jets, but they have not won back-to-back games since December 2018 (vs. the Bills and Patriots, respectively, in Weeks 13 and 14).
What to know for fantasy: Miami’s DeVante Parker ranks 11th among receivers with at least 25 catches this season in terms of points per reception, and he should see a spike in target share with Preston Williams out for the season. See Week 10 rankings.
Betting nugget: Miami has covered four consecutive games after starting the season 0-4 ATS. It’s the second-longest active cover streak in the NFL behind only New Orleans (six straight). Read more.
Wolfe’s pick: Colts 30, Dolphins 17
Wells’ pick: Colts 31, Dolphins 14
FPI prediction: IND, 89.5% (by an average of 16.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Parity in AFC South: How each team can win the division … Why Dolphins’ first win was good for their long-term future … QB Brissett has MCL sprain … Dolphins RB Walton suspended four games for three offseason arrests
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 59.2 | Spread: LAR -3.5 (43.5)
What to watch for: The Steelers’ offensive linemen have done a solid job protecting Mason Rudolph, giving up a league-low eight sacks this season. But Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald is a wrecking machine who will challenge that low number. His sacks were down earlier in the season, but over the past three weeks, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year has racked up four sacks and two forced fumbles. — Brooke Pryor
Bold prediction: Rams running back Todd Gurley has yet rush for 100 yards in a single game this season, but coming off a bye week and with the Rams needing a spark to climb back into the playoff picture, look for Jared Goff to hand off to him early and often. The Steelers’ run defense has allowed an average of 107.5 yards per game, 16th in the league. — Lindsey Thiry
Stat to know: Pittsburgh receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is the first player in NFL history to record 200 career catches (202) before his 23rd birthday (won’t turn 23 until Nov. 22).
What to know for fantasy: Gurley is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry in the Rams’ past three true road games, and the Steelers are allowing the seventh-fewest running back PPG this season. See Week 10 rankings.
Betting nugget: Sean McVay is 10-0 straight up and 7-2-1 ATS against AFC teams in regular-season games. Read more.
Thiry’s pick: Rams 28, Steelers 21
Pryor’s pick: Rams 21, Steelers 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 61.8% (by an average of 4.1 points)
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 55.9 | Spread: GB -5.5 (46.5)
What to watch for: How in the world will the Packers stop Christian McCaffrey? The Packers have allowed 39 gains of 20 yards or more this season (including 13 of 40-plus), and McCaffrey is an explosive gain waiting to happen. Green Bay defensive coordinator Mike Pettine will have to devise something different for the NFL’s leader in yards from scrimmage and touchdowns. — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: The Panthers, who lead the NFL in sacks with 34, will sack Aaron Rodgers at least four times and rattle him enough to make this one closer than most expect. Carolina edge rusher Bruce Irvin said, “You rush and get on their ass early, they’ll be thinking about you the rest of the game.” — David Newton
Stat to know: The Packers’ offensive line has been strong in the pass-protection game. The unit has posted a 65.9% pass block win rate this season, the third-highest in the league. The team’s two losses this season have been in games where it has posted two of its three worst pass block win rates.
What to know for fantasy: The Panthers are allowing the sixth-most running back points per game this season, and Aaron Jones ranks behind only McCaffrey among qualified running backs in points per touch. See Week 10 rankings.
Betting nugget: Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen is 6-1 ATS and straight up as a starter (3-1 as an underdog). In the past 10 seasons, the only quarterbacks to start their careers 7-1 or better ATS are Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Brian Hoyer and Andy Dalton. Read more.
Newton’s pick: Packers 28, Panthers 27
Demovsky’s pick: Packers 24, Panthers 23
FPI prediction: GB, 75.9% (by an average of 9.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: QB Newton has likely played his last game for Panthers … Packers search for right mix of Adams, Jones and run game … QB Allen gets extended audition while insisting ‘nothing has changed’ … When technology fails: How NFL teams handle helmet speaker outages
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating: 89.3 | Spread: DAL -3 (48)
What to watch for: Kirk Cousins‘ history against the Cowboys is not good. He is 1-6 against his former NFC East rival, and although he has thrown at least one touchdown pass in his seven starts against them, he has been intercepted in five. The Cowboys have picked off a pass in three straight games, their longest streak since intercepting at least one pass in four consecutive games in Weeks 10-13 last season. They want to slow down the league’s leading rusher, Dalvin Cook, and put this game on Cousins’ arm. — Todd Archer
Bold prediction: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott throws for three touchdowns. The Vikings’ defense has allowed 66 points in Minnesota’s past two road games and ranks 10th in opponent yards per play (5.2). It’s the big plays and yards after the catch to be concerned with here, as Amari Cooper, Blake Jarwin and Michael Gallup demonstrated against the Giants. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Cook’s 1,232 yards from scrimmage is the second-most through nine games in Vikings history (Adrian Peterson had 1,301 in 2007). The most through 10 games is 1,347 by Chuck Foreman in 1976.
What to know for fantasy: Cousins has completed over 80% of his passes or thrown three-plus touchdown passes in five straight games. See Week 10 rankings.
Betting nugget: Minnesota is 0-7-1 both ATS and straight up in Cousins’ starts on the road against teams that entered with winning records. Read more.
Victor Cruz considers Dalvin Cook the key for the Vikings to get a win over the Cowboys.
Cronin’s pick: Cowboys 24, Vikings 20
Archer’s pick: Cowboys 26, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: DAL, 54.4% (by an average of 1.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Vikings must get back to winning formula for crucial stretch of season … A walk to remember for Cowboys veterans Lee, Witten … Will RB Cook reach Elliott territory with his second contract? … Elliott’s punishing style ‘brings life and energy’ to Cowboys
What to watch for: These are two of the top five rushing teams in the league, and both have run defenses allowing 4.7 or more yards per carry. Getting the run game going will be important for both sides, but especially for the 49ers — a strong ground game can be the most effective way to slow Russell Wilson by keeping him off the field. — Nick Wagoner
Bold prediction: The Seahawks will hold the 49ers’ second-ranked rushing offense to under 125 yards as they try to make Jimmy Garoppolo beat them instead. The matchup suits Seattle’s defense in one respect: San Francisco has run the second-fewest offensive snaps with at least three receivers on the field, which will allow the Seahawks to run their preferred base defense without as many linebacker-on-receiver mismatches. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The 49ers have 303 rushing attempts this season, the most by any team through eight games since the 2008 Ravens. And they are calling a designed run play 54% of the time, the highest rate by any team through eight games since the 2010 Chiefs (54%).
Betting nugget: Wilson is 12-3 ATS and straight up in his career against San Francisco. However, San Francisco is 2-3 ATS in his past five games. Read more.
Henderson’s pick: 49ers 28, Seahawks 26
Wagoner’s pick: 49ers 34, Seahawks 24
FPI prediction: SF, 75.4% (by an average of 9.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: 49ers believe ‘ceiling is however high you want to make it’ … Wilson-Lockett combo quickly becoming one of NFL’s best … 49ers sign new kicker after Gould injures quad … WR Gordon passes Seahawks’ physical, is ‘ready to go’
Published at Fri, 08 Nov 2019 13:10:13 +0000